The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday said it is expecting some slowdown in the Indian economy next fiscal year and projected the growth to 6.1 per cent from 6.8 per cent during the current fiscal ending March 31. The IMF on Tuesday released the January update of its World Economic Outlook, according to which the global growth is projected to fall from an estimated 3.4 per cent in 2022 to 2.9 per cent in 2023, then rise to 3.1 per cent in 2024. "Our growth projections actually for India are unchanged from our October Outlook.
The Budget will be keenly watched (to see) whether there is a credible plan for reducing the fiscal deficit and whether populist measures can be avoided before the 2014 general elections," the Wall Street firm said in a note.
Blame the voter, who invariably chooses the promise of hand-outs today in preference to a vague promise of, say, better schools tomorrow. Getting the Supreme Court to issue an edict, or Parliament to pass a law, is no solution, observes T N Ninan.
Chief Economic Adviser K V Subramanian on Monday said India is likely to post current account surplus in the current financial year as there is moderation in import due to under heating of the economy triggered by the COVID-19 crisis. This crisis is different from what the world witnessed during the taper tantrum, he said while addressing a virtual conference organised by industry body CII. Taper tantrum phenomenon refers to the 2013 collective reactionary response that triggered a spike in US treasury yields, after investors learned that the US Fed was slowly putting brakes on its quantitative easing (QE) program.
"The need is to strengthen the judiciary as a consequence of which the justice delivery system becomes fast, qualitatively responsive and serve the purpose of justice," he said.
The finance minister could well be on her way to setting a record of achieving the biggest single-year reduction in the government's fiscal deficit, explains A K Bhattacharya.
State-run telecom operator BSNL on Tuesday said it expects to close the fiscal with 10 lakh 3G users from seven lakh at present.
Pakistan-India bilateral relations remained frozen for the fourth year over the vexed Kashmir issue but analysts hope the strained ties could be repaired if Nawaz Sharif becomes the prime minister for a record fourth time in the general elections in February in the absence of his main challenger Imran Khan who is in jail in multiple cases.
Officials in the finance ministry are not happy with credit rating agency Fitch's revision of India's local currency outlook to negative from stable. Officials say Fitch's conclusion that the central government's fiscal deficit will rise to 4.5 per cent of gross domestic product in 2008-09, as against 2.8 per cent in the previous fiscal, is wrong.
Sitharaman does away with loans from National Small Savings Fund to Food Corporation of India.
Chief Economic Advisor Krishnamurthy Subramanian said China imports a lot of components, parts, assembles and integrates and then exports them.
Budget has several small steps which will boost growth
'Aggressively stepping up vaccinations will constitute the most enduring stimulus of all in the coming quarters,' observes Sajjid Z Chinoy, Chief India Economist at J P Morgan.
As the duration of the FRBM Act, enacted in 2003, has come to an end, the government would be required to replace it with another law on fiscal consolidation.
Government's push for Make in India which focuses on select 26 sectors and improving the 'ease of doing business' will aid the manufacturing/industrial growth.
The US fiscal deficit is still dangerously high, but nobody is moving to reduce it.
West Bengal lost Rs 546.68 crore (Rs 5.46 billion) in 2007-08 for not having its own fiscal responsibility law, which mandates fiscal discipline, according to the Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG).
The Left parties which had raised the issue were not satisfied with his reply and walked out and they were joined by Samajwadi Party.
"This is the result of tighter fiscal discipline imposed by the fiscal responsibility framework ... and an optimistic revenue outlook driven by the buoyancy in revenue collections during the last three years of the 10th Plan," the 11th Plan document points out.
There is no direct impact of the Russia-Ukraine crisis on India in terms of bilateral trade but a surge in oil prices poses considerable risk to the economy, an analyst report said on Friday. International oil prices which have surged past $100 per barrel "pose risks to external stability and currency movement," a Bank of Baroda Economics Research report said. Russia has launched military operations against Ukraine, stoking fears of significant disruption in the region, including loss of life. The West is ramping up financial sanctions against Russia and support for Ukraine.
Amid demands for snapping trade ties with China for its transgressions on the border, former Niti Aayog vice chairman Arvind Panagariya has opined that cutting trade with Beijing at this juncture would amount to sacrificing India's potential economic growth. Instead, Panagariya suggested that India should try to enter into free trade agreements (FTA) with countries such as the UK and the European Union to expand its trade. "Engaging China in a trade war at this juncture will mean sacrificing a considerable part of our potential growth... purely on economic grounds, it will be unwise to take any action in response to it (transgressions on the border)," the eminent economist told PTI.
Former Niti Aayog Vice Chairman Arvind Panagariya has opined that cutting trade with Beijing at this juncture would amount to sacrificing India's potential economic growth.
The obvious temptation for Mr Jaitley would be to achieve a better fiscal deficit figure than what he had promised in July.
There are various estimates of India's debt to GDP ratio, but the consensus is that that it would be over 80 per cent at the end of the current fiscal year.
Two important features are Effective Revenue Deficit and Medium Term Expenditure Framework.
Vijay Kelkar, who headed the committee on tax reforms, on Tuesday warned that higher economic growth and foreign direct investment flow could not be achieved without hard fiscal reforms.
Ahead of the Budget, global rating agency Standard and Poor's has warned India may not be able to achieve the fiscal responsibility and budget management target of axing fiscal deficit and projected a lower growth of 6 per cent this fiscal.
"We are on track to bring down fiscal deficit to 3.3 per cent this year and to three per cent in the next year and hopefully remove revenue deficit in 2008-09", Finance Secretary D Subbaro said while speaking at the launch of the OECD economic survey of the Indian economy in New Delhi on Tuesday. The Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act requires the government to reduce fiscal deficit to three per cent of the GDP and eliminate revenue deficit by 2008-09.
Finance Ministr Arun Jaitley will have to do a balancing act to manage fiscal prudence.
He did not believe in any fiscal puritanism. In 2012, when it was almost certain that the government will breach the 2012-13 fiscal deficit target, he wrote that in abnormal times, abnormal measures are required to get back to normalcy.
Bharti Airtel made part payment of Rs 4,725 crore.
Making a case for an optimal fiscal stance, the Economic Survey on Friday said growth leads to debt sustainability and not necessarily vice-versa. "This is because debt sustainability depends on the 'Interest Rate Growth Rate Differential' (IRGD) i.e. the difference between the interest rate and the growth rate in an economy. "With the Indian context of potential high growth, the interest rate on debt paid by the Indian government has been less than India's growth rate by norm, not by exception," it said.
For fiscal year FY23, the 2022 Union Budget had targeted a capex outlay of Rs 7.5 trillion, which is 35.4 per cent higher than the FY22 Budget Estimate of Rs 5.54 trillion.
Addressing a public meeting after unveiling a 125 ft-tall statue of B R Ambedkar here, KCR said the BRS party was getting a tremendous response from Maharashtra and was expecting a similar reaction from West Bengal, Bihar, and Uttar Pradesh.
Expressing his satisfaction over the government's move to slash fiscal deficit target, Das said it will help improve investment by the private sector as crowding out impact will be less.
Driven by strong demand, the overall passenger vehicle dispatches crossed 3.35 lakh units in February as automakers, including Maruti Suzuki India, Hyundai, Tata Motors and Mahindra & Mahindra, reported robust sales during the month. The dispatches of more than 3.35 lakh units last month marked an 11 per cent over February 2022. It was also the highest ever overall wholesales in the month of February. The country's largest carmaker Maruti Suzuki India on Wednesday said its domestic wholesales rose 11 per cent to 155,114 units in February as compared with 140,035 units in the same month last year.
If the government cuts wasteful expenditure as it is trying now, the deficit would at most fall to 8 per cent, not less than that.
Sri Lankans queued up to apply for fresh passports outside the department of immigration and emigration office in Colombo.
Among other things, the agenda is likely to focus on increasing private investment, employment generation and giving relief to the farm sector
In an accompanying vision statement, the former finance minister highlighted his track record of serving in the Cabinet, helping to steer the economy through the toughest of times with the COVID pandemic.
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